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Fundamental. If you do not understand this, then retire from football prediction or preferably, sport betting. Of course Zulubet, SoccerVista and Statarea are one of the best soccer prediction site out there but while considering predictions from tipsters, be sure that a favourite with 1.25 will win. Again, do the given odds offer you some value?
Many times we have heard sporadic punters say "It is impossible for this team to lose the game". Okay, they may be the clear favorites, but what is the probability that they will earn better than the odds offered? Betting on this mental structure is more like saying that paying for a plasma TV above its price is a good value just because you wanted it with all your soul. That does not work.
Value is a simple concept, but most people interested in betting do not understand it, and we may have to thank them, since it is this easy and naive money that diverts the market by providing exceptional opportunities to the minority of wagers especially in Nigeria.
If you've ever used the phrase "It's just that I'm from lyrics", maybe you should stop and think if the bets are your thing. While many gamblers come to success thanks to their instinct or their "sensations", to be successful in the long term you need a viable investment plan and you need to understand what the quotas represent in terms of probability.
In a nutshell, it's a numbers game and you need at least to get along with divisions and multiplications. With division and multiplication as a minimum.
This depends on the popularity of the event, but in general, the odds of the bookmakers will be more a reflection of what the public is expected to think rather than the actual likelihood of the outcome. Of course, it is not that simple, but normally bookmakers will set their odds to attract bets on either side of the odds, as well as to balance their liabilities and get their commission.
This allows astute bettors to find exceptional value opportunities where the general opinion is totally against. This also means that a high value can be found in events in which more interest is expected from the usual by the occasional or sporadic gambler, who has no idea in terms of profitable strategies for betting. Events like Soccer, Super Bowl, tournament finals and major horse races are the main candidates for this type of opportunity.
The more you bet, the more you are likely to choose the team that nobody likes. In fact, the worse the pint of the bet on paper, the more I like it. It seems to go against instinct, I know, but the less a team likes, the more attractive I think in terms of value. Especially teams that have been doing well for a while but that are mired in a slump of a few games. While the general public flees, its value rises like foam.
Do not let a recent losing streak take you out of the game. Take it out of your head, be true to your analysis and trust in turning the toast. In the same way, do not let a winning streak give you false hopes and lead you to overconfidence. Again, be true to your analysis or the ones you got from soccervista, Zulubet or statarea prediction and continue with your plan.
Double bets, multiple bets, combined or whatever you want to call them. Be aware of when to bet on them and when not. Of course they offer the jackpot, the boat of the century, but unless you have done your job well and have found real value, they are a terrible way to bet.
Look at it this way: if you made a multiple bet of 4 results and you got the total money price even for the 2.00 odds on each result, the odds of a multiple bet would be 16.00. Now let's go to an example of the real world in which you are offered 1.90 for "money even" with the house staying with 5%. In this case the fees for the same multiple bet would be just 13.00. This would subtract almost 19% from the total price of the bet.
But if you have found authentic value, multiples can give you tremendous value because you multiply their value with each result. The dilemma is, of course, to find authentic value. Everyone who adds a bet to their coupon does so thinking they have found value. Nobody bets on installments that do not give value. Here more than ever it is important to find authentic value, because if not only you are diminishing your chances of success with each new addition added.
It would be great to get covered quickly, but that will not happen. Think long term. Set your funds and increase the amount wagered in each game, and soon you will see yourself earning a little extra money. And who knows, maybe if you continue with your plan long enough, you can get to live on this.
If you want to make money you need to start betting with funds capable of absorbing losses. If you are going to bet in units, with an average bet amount of 1 unit, I would recommend a minimum of 50 funds.
Okay, maybe you can only afford 1000 euros, which means that your average unit will be 20. It sounds like a little thing, I know you want to be a big shot, but funds of 1000 euros can be converted faster than It seems in a substantial amount with a consistent value recognition and an intelligent investment plan.
Let's say you bet 200 times a year and, for the sake of the argument, you always do it by 1.90 odds. And let's also say that you have a 54% effectiveness. Well, following the fraction of Dom as an investment plan, after those 200 bets and depending on how consistent you are when you win, which should prosper with the passage of time, your funds would reach around 1100.00 euros. Yes, I know what you're thinking: That's only 100 euros of profit in a year! Okay, but that's just betting 200 times with a 2.6% average performance.
Now imagine that you make 400 bets a year and still you are able to reach a modest 5% of performance. These funds of 1000 euros after the 400 bets will come to be around the 1400 euros; after 5 years, around 5000 euros; and after 10 years, around 30,000 euros with an average unit of 600.
It's not bad at all. Of course, it's hard to get to that consistent 5% yield, and maybe the hardest thing is maybe to maintain those funds over the years. But the objective here is to show how, starting with modest funds and following the investment plan, we can achieve great long-term benefits.
I've heard it many times: "Yes, sometimes I bet just to make it more fun". OK, that's great. But do not expect to become a long-term winner.
If you want to give interest, get into a football prediction competition or in the Comunio or other competitions where you do not use real money.
Indeed, sometimes you will have a bad time.
In this section, we will share some keys with you in the hope that you can improve on your over/under bets.
Of course, the recent form matters, but not as much as people think. At least in terms of taking advantage of the quotas. Many times, i see people who refer to what a team has done in the last 3 or 4 weeks for example, and yes, that team may have scored many goals or points in recent weeks or games, but, this really gives you some precise notions about the true potential of a team to score? The truth is, no.
To get reliable information on the potential of a team to score you have to look further and have a longer-term view. Think of the score during the last matches (look up for soccervista prediction or here in Bet9ja vip for some useful tips). It depends a lot on the sport, the league and in general, the number and frequency of matches played. Of course the recent form has to be taken into account, but an easy way to make mistakes over and over again in the over/under bets is to be seduced too easily by a recent high or low scoring run.
To be more precise, the recent form is what seduces naive bettors on a regular basis, which means that there are opportunities in over/under bets for those of us who consider the true potential instead of acting on the impulse to what has happened in the last weeks.
It seems a truism, but all too often I see people talking about the overall form of a team and its scoring potential instead of its specific form at home and away. And this is very important.
If you review any European league you will see that the teams have specific tendencies in terms of scoring at home or away. For whatever reason, some teams get better scores playing at home than they were, while others get the opposite; They spend a lot of time at home and then they break up in the matches in the rival camp.
Here are a couple of examples: in the 2010/2011 Premier League season, Blackburn home games were below 2.5 goals in 13 of 19 games, but away from home this only happened in 6 of their 19 matches. On the other hand, according to soccervista sure wins, Fulham's home games were under 2.5 goals in 8 of the 19 occasions, while away from home this happened 13 times.
The idea, therefore, should be clear: when betting on more / less in any competition we must take into account where the game is played and how each team develops in that situation.
This is another thing that I see too much: people who make reference to the average of goals when it gives advice on a particular match. This where you need to pay attention to zulubet prediction for today and tomorrow’s matches.
The means can be good when we analyze a very large sample with markers that vary little. The problem is that even on a scale of, for example, 15 games, an irregular result can take the average to the bottom.
Consider the following hypothetical example:
Let's say that Valencia have played 15 home games with a total of 45 goals in those games. This gives us an average of 3 goals per game. The bet of more / less is paid well and it seems tempting if we consider the form of Valencia at home in total goals.
But if for example I tell you that two of those 15 games had an especially bulky marker, for example a 4-2 and a 5-1, making a total of 12 goals, we found that these two irregular results have distorted the average, which for the other 13 games it would be 2.53.
What seemed like an excellent opportunity to bet more 2.5 goals now ?
So although the stockings can be helpful for large samples, it is generally best to follow up on the facts. This where statarea prediction comes in play. Look for example how many times a team's matches have been above or below a certain number of goals. In our example of Valencia, although the average for the 15 matches at home is 3 goals per game, the actual number of times that their matches have exceeded 2.5 goals could be less than 50% by giving us a few high scores a distorted and inaccurate impression. Perhaps the home games of Valencia have surpassed the 2.5 goals in 7 occasions.
After this, does the average of 3 goals still make you feel comfortable when betting on more than 2.5 goals? Probably not.
Keep your over/under games on the basic 2.5 goals per game or wherever the appropriate winnings are for a given match, usually between 2 and 3 goals in function of the teams involved or the league.
The reality is that this is where the value lies.
Of course, a bookmaker will offer you 5.00 for more than 4.5 goals, but in general, the bookmakers that offer this type of odds with such irregular goals, usually take more than the average commission.
Although of course, the value is where you can find it, so if you have analysed all the data and found an exceptional value in a number of atypical goals, either high or low, take advantage of it. But before then check soccervista yesterday results before placing your wager on your favourite team.
But in general, we encourage you to stay on the norm and get involved in the even money lines in the over/under sure games. Your results will be much more consistent.
In addition, in terms of analysis, it is much easier to find historical quota data on the web for these markets than for more extravagant varieties.
Always analyse the odds, but if you also want to really improve your over/under bets, take a look at deeper statistics. With all these types of analysis we are trying to find the real potential of a team in a match or a competition, and goals and results are not always the best way to achieve it.
So look beyond. Try to develop an analysis that incorporates statistical categories that can usually give you better clues about the form of a team and its scoring potential.
Watch the shots. This includes the shots on goal and the average of goals scored per shot.
Unfortunately, the goals can be a bit inconsistent and sometimes show a great fluctuation.
In addition, the general users usually only take into account the bookies and the bookmakers usually fit their odds in the expectations of the average bettor. Having a deeper knowledge of the scoring potential can give you a great advantage and yield high profits in your account.
Taking into account the previous matches between both contestants can be helpful, and sometimes, you may be surprised. You will have the possibility to discover that while two teams are shown as little scoring and defensive during the league, for some reason when faced, they go on to develop an offensive football with high scores. But do not look too far back. What these teams did 10 years ago is not going to help you. Take into account only the results of the last 2 or 3 seasons.
Situational analysis is a very relevant part of my overall estimates when I want to go with soccervista today prediction or zulu bet and statarea.
Observe performance in similar situations. When a team clearly has to lose out of home, is it usual to produce a high or low score? Or when they play against weaker opponents, do they have a tendency to go for a goal or do they just do enough to take the victory?
It is also good to look beyond the particular trends of the teams involved. Go to the bottom of the statistics and see, for example, if the scores are higher at the beginning or end of the season.
This type of data is worth taking into account in your general analysis and can give you an advantage and an approach that the general public simply ignores.